PV installed capacity in the first three quarters is lower than expected to meet the peak demand in the fourth quarter
I.Newly installed photovoltaic capacity of 15.99gw in the first three quarters
According to the data released at the press conference of the national energy administration,in the first three quarters of 2019,15.99gw of new photovoltaic installed capacity was added,including 7.73gw of photovoltaic power plants and 8.26gw of distributed photovoltaic power plants.According to this calculation,4.69gw of new installed capacity was added in the third quarter,which is close to the data released by CEC in the early stage,slightly lower than the expectation at the beginning of the year.
In the third quarter,the installed capacity is mainly distributed photovoltaic,and household distribution is the biggest highlight.In the third quarter of 2019,China added 4.59gw of new photovoltaic installed capacity,including 3.68gw of distributed photovoltaic(accounting for 80.17%),only 0.91gw of ground power station(accounting for 19.83%),and most of distributed photovoltaic.Among them,household distributed PV contributed a large increase.In the third quarter,2.067gw of new distributed PV was added,accounting for 45.03%of the total installed capacity.The main reasons for the rapid growth of household distributed photovoltaic include the sharp decrease of initial investment cost(6-7 yuan/w to 3.5-4 yuan/W),the improvement of financial support(mainly local banks,some of which can achieve zero down payment),and the expected rush to install effect based on subsidy reduction,etc.
The lower installed capacity of surface power stations(79.41%QoQ decrease in the third quarter)is the main reason for the lower than expected installed capacity.The first half of 2019 is in the stage of new policy formulation,and the list of parity and competitive projects that constitute the main body of new demand in 2019 was published in May and July 2019 respectively.Due to the late issuance of policies,the main ground projects in the third quarter are basically in the preliminary preparation stage,and failed to form an effective grid connected installation.
II.Peak demand in the fourth quarter
According to the declared estimated production time,4.75gw of the parity project is expected to be connected to the grid by the end of 2019.We have sorted out 22.79gw bidding projects in 2019,among which the projects invested by central enterprises,state-owned enterprises and large private enterprises exceed 11gw,which is basically consistent with the previously estimated 10GW bidding projects started by Zhihui photovoltaic,which will be the main force of installation in the fourth quarter.In addition,the fourth quarter itself is also the peak season of overseas market,so the demand peak will come in the fourth quarter,and the supply and demand of industrial chain will be significantly improved.Recently,the price of silicon materials and perc battery chips has recovered,and the price of monocrystalline silicon chips has remained unchanged,which initially reflects the increase of demand.In addition to photovoltaic poverty alleviation,demonstration projects in stock,and UHV projects,over 15gw of new installed capacity was added in China in the fourth quarter,and 30-35gw of new installed capacity was added in the whole year.
III.There is still demand in the first half of 2020
Some bidding projects are deferred,and the demand in the first half of 2020 is not pessimistic.As the bidding project is required to be connected to the grid before the end of 2019,the subsidy will be reduced by 0.01 yuan/kWh for each quarter delayed(the subsidy qualification will be cancelled for more than two quarters delayed),so some of the bidding projects with poor qualification of the remaining 11gw main body will be postponed to the first half of 2020.The household photovoltaic market has been preliminarily developed and matured.After the policies are made clear at the end of the year or the beginning of 2020,the rush installation will continue,and most of the installation will be completed in the first half of 2020(the household photovoltaic will be reported monthly,and the annual total amount control).In addition to the 1.5gw leader award index project,stock demonstration project and UHV project planned to be connected to the grid before 630 in 2020,the domestic demand in the first half of 2020 is not pessimistic.In overseas markets,from historical experience,the first quarter is generally the second peak of the whole year,and the endogenous demand brought by the parity Internet is also continuing.