"Cliff" slide of new photovoltaic installation
On October 29,the National Energy Administration held a regular press conference.Li chuangjun,deputy director of the Department of new energy and renewable energy,pointed out at the meeting that in the first three quarters of this year,the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in China increased by 15.99 million kilowatts,down 53.7%year on year.
Compared with the newly installed photovoltaic data in the same period of the past three years,from January to September 2018,China's newly installed photovoltaic power generation capacity was 34.54 million kilowatts.Liang Zhipeng,deputy director of the Department of new energy and renewable energy of the national energy administration,gave a qualitative analysis of the market scale of photovoltaic power generation at that time as"steady growth".In the same period of 2017,the new installed capacity of photovoltaic reached 43 million kilowatts.At that time,Li chuangjun chose the term"rapid expansion"of photovoltaic power generation market.
In the first half of this year,the newly installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in China was 11.4 million kilowatts.According to this calculation,in the third quarter of this year,the newly installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation was only 4.59 million kilowatts,lower than the installed capacity level of 5.2 million kilowatts and 6.2 million kilowatts in the first and second quarters.Not only that,compared with the same period in 2018 and 2017 of 1024 million kilowatts and 18.6 million kilowatts,the decline was 55.2%and 75.3%respectively.
From"rapid expansion"to"steady growth"to today's year-on-year cut,in 2019,how much photovoltaic can be newly installed in China?
On February 19 this year,the National Energy Administration organized some representatives of media and industry associations to hold a symposium to solicit opinions on relevant construction and management measures for photovoltaic power generation in 2019.Li chuangjun said at the meeting that the overall tone of photovoltaic power generation in 2019 is to strive for progress in stability."This year's construction scale will not be lower than that of 2018.On the basis of stability,it is necessary to increase it to ensure the sustainable development of the industry."
On July 11 this year,the results of state subsidy bidding for photovoltaic power generation projects in 2019 were officially announced.At the media conference organized by the National Energy Administration on the same day,the relevant person in charge of the national renewable energy information management center predicted that the photovoltaic installed capacity that can be built and connected to the grid within the year is expected to be 40-45 million kilowatts,among which the total installed capacity of the project to be included in the scope of national bidding subsidy is nearly 23 million kilowatts.In addition,about 4.5 million kilowatts of photovoltaic poverty alleviation projects,about 4-5 million kilowatts of photovoltaic leader projects,about 4.5 million kilowatts of affordable Internet access projects,about 3.5 million kilowatts of household photovoltaic projects,and 9 million kilowatts of UHV supporting projects have been arranged(about 4.5-5 million kilowatts are expected to be able to be connected to the grid in the year).
In 2018,the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in China increased by 44.26 million kilowatts.Based on the data of 15.99 million kilowatts in the first nine months of this year,in the last three months of 2019,the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in China is still 28.27 million kilowatts short of last year's growth scale.According to the prediction results of renewable energy information management of the above countries,whether the bidding project can be smoothly promoted will be the key to determine the new photovoltaic installation this year.
The person in charge of the enterprise involved in the development and construction of bidding projects said:"the bidding result of this year is only clear in July.Although the construction time of photovoltaic power station is not long,a project is from scratch,involving many links of land,power grid and other departments,and this cycle is not short.Therefore,it is still a challenge for bidding projects to smoothly connect to the grid in this year."
For some parity items declared this year,the above-mentioned person in charge thinks that most enterprises are still in the"wait-and-see"situation."There are not many projects that are actually started.On the one hand,we want to wait and see if the component price can go down.On the other hand,when applying for many projects,the land and grid connection may not be completely determined,and we have to wait and see."
Li chuangjun pointed out that in the first three quarters of 15.99 million kilowatts of new installed capacity,the installed capacity of photovoltaic power stations is 7.73 million kilowatts;the installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic power stations is 8.26 million kilowatts.From the perspective of the new installed layout,the new installed capacity in North China is 5.086 million KW,the new installed capacity in Northeast China is 512000 kW,the new installed capacity in Northwest China is 4.308 million KW,the new installed capacity in East China is 3.322 million KW,the new installed capacity in Central China is 1.809 million KW,and the new installed capacity in South China is 955000 kW.
Looking back on the first three quarters of this year,Li stressed that the overall development of renewable energy is stable."In the first three quarters of this year,the installed scale of renewable energy expanded steadily.By the end of September 2019,the installed capacity of renewable energy power generation in China has reached 764 million kilowatts,a year-on-year increase of 8.2%;among them,355 million kilowatts of hydropower(including 29.99 million kilowatts of pumped storage),198 million kilowatts of wind power,190 million kilowatts of photovoltaic power and 21.16 million kilowatts of biomass power generation.The utilization level of renewable energy has increased significantly.By the end of September 2019,renewable energy power generation reached 1437.1 billion kwh,an increase of about 11%year on year.Among them,hydropower is 893.8 billion kwh,a year-on-year increase of 7.9%;wind power is 291.4 billion kwh,a year-on-year increase of 8.9%;photovoltaic power is 171.5 billion kwh,a year-on-year increase of 28.1%;biomass power is 80.4 billion kwh,a year-on-year increase of 19.4%."(reporter Yao Jinnan)
Previous PV installed capacity in the first three quarters is lower than expected to meet the peak demand in the fourth quarter